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A bilateral trade agreement with China would boost Australia's gross domestic product by A$146bn ($114bn) over 20 years, according to a report due out today.
The Australia China Business Council's study was prepared by an independent economic consultancy but sponsored by Chinalco, the aluminium group trying to execute China's largest foreign investment with a US$19.5bn (€14bn, £12.4bn) injection into Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian miner.
The report comes as Canberra enters the final weeks of deliberations on whether to approve the Chinalco deal, which has raised concerns that a foreign state-backed enterprise would own a strategic stake in Australia's biggest natural resource assets. However, Canberra is mindful that blocking Chinalco could provoke a backlash from its biggest trading partner and a country that has underwritten its prosperity.
Canberra and Beijing have held 13 rounds of talks on a trade agreement over the past four years. Chinese barriers to agricultural goods, fishing and animal products are among the biggest obstacles to a comprehensive agreement.
The negotiations were re- energised after the 2007 election of Kevin Rudd, Australia's mandarin-speaking prime minister. However, they have since stalled on “technical” issues, according to Simon Crean, trade minister, who this month noted that China was not “exactly your benchmark for speed”.
Mr Crean said Beijing had not used the talks to seek a favourable outcome for Chinalco but had sought assurances that Australia would not discriminate against China. “I have assured them that we are open to foreign investment, we do not apply discriminatory procedures country by country,” he said.
Frank Tudor, chairman of the business council, whose 800 corporate members include Rio, BHP Billiton, Qantas Airways, Chinalco subsidiary Chalco, and Bank of China, said bilateral barriers to trade and services should be removed.
A trade agreement would “yield major results for the Australian economy” and materially boost GDP over a sustained period, he said, whilst conceding that a “big bang” agreement would be difficult and protracted.
Mr Tudor said the report was prepared by the Centre for International Economics, an Australian consultancy, and the Chinese had not chosen its topic or author.